← [TCG] Jan. RED STITCH CLOTH MAT event
Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at [TCG] Jan. RED STITCH CLOTH MAT event
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-1-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
56.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1582
· median 1582
· range 1582–1582
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1280
Q3 1441
1689
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Luxem Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
